Blog Market Commentary
Stocks headed into the second half with impressive momentum. Historically, a strong first half tended toward above-average second-half returns. Market gains were heavily skewed towards the large-cap growth and technology companies. The S&P 500 became increasingly concentrated in, with just five companies accounting for 29% of the index. Economic growth moderated but remained resilient with…
Read MoreThe S&P 500 TR Index continued its strong momentum and reached new all-time highs. Momentum often creates momentum, which leaves us optimistic about stocks currently. However, a near-term pullback wouldn’t surprise us. The U.S. economy continued to grow due to a strong labor market, healthy consumer balance sheets, and robust services activity. Due to an…
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Stocks ended the year on a nine-week winning streak, as the S&P 500 TR Index erased all the losses in 2022 reaching new all-time highs during the quarter. The year-end rally in stocks was one of the strongest ever and was based on the expectations of a Fed policy rate change and expectations of…
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After a strong first half, stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 TR, pulled back during a historically weak third quarter. Economic data continued to be stronger than expected and even showed signs of accelerating. This, amongst other factors, caused long term bond yields to increase significantly during the quarter. We ended the quarter…
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The S&P 500 broke out of its yearlong trading range, producing positive returns for the third quarter in a row. Excitement around artificial intelligence propelled growth stocks to outsized gains. Economic data came in better than expected as growth continued to be resilient, and inflation continued to moderate. Our technical indicators were positive while our…
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The U.S. debt limit – commonly called the debt ceiling – is the total amount of money that the U.S. government is authorized to borrow. When the debt limit is reached, the government can no longer borrow money to cover its obligations. Congress has raised or suspended the debt ceiling over one hundred times since…
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Stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, rose for the second quarter in a row but remain in a year-long trading range. The second largest bank failure in U.S. history quickly changed bond yields. Markets were priced for interest rate cuts by the end of 2023. The dramatic change in interest rate expectations caused a…
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It’s been an encouraging start to the year after a challenging 2022. Falling inflation, interest rates, and decent earnings have provided fuel for a nice market run to start the year. The S&P 500 is up over 8% this year and up over 15% since it bottomed in October 2022. Bonds (1) are up over…
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Despite a fourth quarter rally, both U.S. stocks and bonds declined for the year causing a 60/40 portfolio to have its third-worst return since 1926. We expected better days ahead. Markets may be down, but most of the damage was done in the first half of the year. Since the end of June, stocks…
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Presidential Elections and the Market
From 1961 to 2023, a $10,000 initial investment in the S&P 500 would have grown to over $102,000 if invested only when a Republican was in the White House. Conversely, the same investment would have grown to more than $500,000 if invested only during Democratic presidencies. While this might suggest a strategy of investing under…
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